Why Democrats Lost the 2010 Midterm Election

The midterm elections of 2010 brought a wave of new politicians into power. The House of Representatives, which has held a large Democratic majority over the past 4 years, is now solidly Republican. Many writers on blogs and in news organizations have tried to analyze the election and formulate reasons for the election results and prescriptions for what the Democrats should do in the next two years to win back the House and retain power in the Senate and Presidency. This article is similar in that it will try to explain the reasons for the Democratic losses, recommend what the Democrats should do to regain the House in 2012, and look at the influences of Fox News and the Citizens United decision on the election. The first part of this article will discuss the reasons that the Democrats lost and what they should do in the next Congressional term, based on what polls say about American views on the budget deficit, health care, foreign policy, and income distribution. The second part will discuss whether liberals or conservatives were more important in the last election and examine the effects of Fox News and Citizens United.

On November 3rd, Frank Newport of Gallup posted an analysis of the 2010 midterm elections, citing many reasons which combined to form the "wave election" for Republicans. Newport states that there were various structural factors that affected the election. Historically, midterm elections favor the minority party. Additionally, the Democrats had a number of uncertain seats which they had picked up in the 2006 and 2008 elections and were not in reliably Democratic districts. Compounding these issues were the facts that Congress had low approval ratings and that most Americans are dissatisfied with "the way things are going" in the country. The last structural factor was that Americans had a negative perception of the economy. Besides structural factors, Newport also cites other reasons for the 2010 election results. The economy was definitely the top issue in this year's election, which, combined with the negative perception of the economy that most Americans held, did not bode well for the incumbent Democrats. Differences in belief about the role of the federal government were also important in this election cycle, with the Tea Party movement and Republicans advocating a reduced role. Many of the above factors created an enthusiasm gap which favored the Republicans and resulted in a high turnout of Republican voters. Furthermore, President Obama's job approval rating was below 50% at the time of the election, which also portended that his party would lose seats. Gallup's research is nonpartisan, supported by many polls, and goes quite far in explaining the results of the election. However, the question remains, what could the Democrats have done to mitigate these factors and what should they do in the next session of Congress?

Evan Bayh, a retiring Democratic Senator from Indiana, wrote an op-ed in the New York Times immediately after the election which argues that the Democrats have been too liberal and need to return to the center to win in 2012. Bayh blames the losses in Congress on Democratic overreach in many areas. He believes that Democrats paid too much attention to health care, but should have focused on economic growth and creating jobs. According to Bayh, the Democrats were too deferential to their liberal base, which hurt their chances among the moderate and conservative voters. Democrats spent time dealing with gays in the military, immigration reform, and the Bush tax cuts, which are not issues that motivate moderate voters. Bayh recommends that the Democrats take a more centrist approach in the next two years. He believes Democrats should focus on economic growth as their primary goal and try to evade their stereotype as "taxers and spenders". According to Bayh, Democrats should reduce corporate taxes, ban earmarks, freeze federal hiring and pay increases, and reform entitlements. Adopting these policies would allow the Democrats to take the center of the American political debate and force the Republicans into an extremist position.

However, there are many on the left who disagree with Bayh and argue that the Democrats should have pursued a more progressive agenda. Mark Weisbrot, the Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Social Policy Research, argues that the Democrats erred in not passing a larger stimulus. The CBO estimates that the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act saved between 1.4 million and 3.3 million jobs by the middle of 2010. Weisbrot claims that a much larger stimulus was needed and that such a stimulus would would have lowered unemployment and helped the Democrats in the election. Karen Dolan, a fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, states that liberal Democrats were more successful in the last election, noting that Blue Dog Democrats lost more seats in Congress than did Progressives. The Blue Dog Caucus in the House decreased from 54 to 26 members, while the House Progressive Caucus decreased from 78 to 75. If the Democrats had been guilty of overreach, then why did the most liberal Democrats win their elections? If the American people wanted Democrats who valued economic growth and fiscal discipline above all else, then why did the Blue Dogs lose so many seats? Norman Solomon, a co-chair of the Healthcare NOT Warfare campaign, writes that contrary to Bayh's claim, the Democrats actually suffered from a "tragedy of under-reaching". Solomon argues that the Obama administration has undermined itself by not following progressive policies. The administration, along with many Democrats, have accommodated wars, wavered on Bush tax cuts, allowed high unemployment, not stopped foreclosures, and permitted environmental destruction. These policies, writes Solomon, have empowered the Right and weakened the Democratic Party.

Advocates of divergent political philosophies have disparate views on what the Democratic party should do, but what do public opinion polls have to say about public support for various policies? Polls performed by CNN, the New York Times, Quinnipac University, and the Atlantic Review all show that the majority of voters favor many policies that are labeled "liberal" in the current political landscape. Here are a sample of some polls.

Health Care
72% of Americans supported a public health care option in 2009 (link)

Gays in the Military
72% of Americans favor gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military (link)

Budget Deficit
69% think preventing cuts in Medicaid is more important than reducing the deficit (link)
79% think preventing cuts in Medicare is more important than reducing deficit (link)
78% think preventing cuts in Social Security is more important than reducing deficit (link)
61% think preventing cuts in unemployment aid is more important than reducing deficit (link)
43% think the Bush tax cuts should continue for families who make <$250k (link)
35% think the tax cuts should continue for all

Foreign Wars
58% of voters said in 2007 that "it is a dangerous illusion to believe America is superior to other nations; we should not be attempting to reshape other nations in light of our values." (link)
50% say that the US should not be involved in Afghanistan vs. 44% who say the country should be involved (link)

These polls show that a large majority of Americans were in favor of a public health care option during the debate in Congress and are currently in favor of gays serving openly in the military. These are two issues on which Republicans have attacked President Obama for being too liberal. Additionally, media pundits have argued that the budget deficit is an important issue, with Republicans supporting entitlement cuts and tax cuts and Obama proposing the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for individuals who make over $250k. According to Evan Bayh, entitlement reform should be a large priority for the administration, but these polls show that approximately 4 out of 5 Americans believe that preventing cuts in Social Security and Medicare are more important than reducing the deficit. Similarly, large majorities of Americans do not want to cut Medicaid or unemployment aid to balance the budget. However, most Americans would rather let tax cuts expire for families who make under $250k than let the tax cuts expire for everyone. In terms of foreign wars, most Americans are to the left of the Obama administration and many Democrats. The majority of Americans do not favor nation-building nor forcing our values onto other nations. Furthermore, half of Americans do not want the country to be involved in Afghanistan, despite the Obama administration's escalation of the war. When the American public is polled on a variety of other issues such as defense spending and foreign aid, they do not follow a uniformly liberal platform. However, the polls above show quite clearly that when dealing with the budget, health care, and foreign wars, there is widespread support for many liberal policies.

Another survey by behavioral scientists Daniel Ariely and Michael Norton shows that most Americans, regardless of political affiliation, share similar ideas on wealth distribution. The survey asks the following questions:

1) What percentage of US wealth is owned by the bottom 40% of the population?
2) What percentage should the bottom 40% own, in an ideal version of U.S. society?
3) What percentage is owned by the top 20%?
4) What percentage should the top 20% own?

In this survey, wealth is defined as "all property of value, from cash to art to stocks and bonds to homes, minus debts". Try to do the quiz yourself to see what you think. Here are the respondents' estimates, the ideals, and the actual numbers.

Wealth Distribution in America
Income Division............Estimate.......Actual........Ideal
Bottom 40%......................10%.............0.3%.......20-25%
Top 20%............................60%.............85%..........36%

According to this survey, Americans prefer a much more egalitarian society, similar to a Scandinavian country, rather than the unequal system currently present in the US. This indicates that the vast majority of Americans may actually prefer "socialist" policies. If the Democrats want to appeal to the most Americans, they should pursue policies that are at least "left-of-center" and perhaps more liberal, and not completely in the supposed center of the American political debate. They should protect entitlements and work to make the US more egalitarian. They should stop waging wars and embrace civil liberties. And if they want to win, they should focus on creating jobs through fiscal stimulus. Furthermore, unlike the last two years, they need to actually execute progressive policies effectively.

The midterm election of 2010 was a result of many factors, the most important being the economy. The effect of the midterm elections on the incumbent party and the unpopularity of the current incumbent party were also factors. Although some moderate Democrats believe that the party should move to the right, polls suggest that many Americans prefer more liberal policies. The second part of this article will examine the effects of the Republican enthusiasm gap, Fox News, and the Citizens United decision on the election.