The NLCS: Dodgers vs. Phillies

So, here we are …

Baseball is often called the national pastime, but in recent decades, it is safe to assert that it has lost that honored designation to some extent. The major league minimum salary exceeds the average American’s annual income by almost twelve times over, an increase of 800% over what players earned from the 1940s to the 1960s. Those years were some of the greatest that baseball ever had, when its heroes became icons in the national church of sport. The October greatness that baseball brought to the culture gave the World Series the honored title of the “Fall Classic” – somehow, the tainting of the game by PEDs, greedy free agents, stratospheric ticket prices, and bellicose fans aplenty at the ballparks makes one wonder if this is the same game my father watched when America fought the commies in Korea while Ted Williams flew a navy fighter jet in Pyongyang.

Whatever…

I love this game so damned much that even with its many black eyes, I still awaken each day, and along with my coffee and love of fried bacon, I pull up the standings between April and September so I can see where my Dodgers stand. I usually know the previous night’s score and how many games back they are, but I look anyway. And as the weather cools a bit, yes, even in lizard-hot SoCal, I pray LA will put a team into the postseason.

And in recent years, while the Angels of OC have been fielding competitive teams for the last decade, it has been good to see my Dodgers back in the playoff hunt again after a rough decade. They have been there before – 2004 versus the Cards (lost in four games); 2006 versus the Mets (swept in three); 2008 versus the Cubs and Phillies (swept Chicago, but lost in four games to Philly) – but the Dodgers have not won a World Series since I was a youthful and utterly annoying 23 year-old in 1988. At 44, I can taste the familiar feeling of a potential title team again, and I see it in the swagger these blue-clad lads display on the field. But I am also a wiser, wider 44 year-old, too. I know you do not always get what you want in this game called baseball. Sometimes, you get close and then see that proximity become a chasm all too quickly, leaving you with a long, cold winter to ponder the many questions that made your team fall short.

And still, I love baseball, and I love the Los Angeles Dodgers all the more.

PLAYOFFS!

Tonight at Dodger Stadium, the Philadelphia Phillies matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies are favored by the oddsmakers, and that is fine for Dodger fans, trust me. The Phils are very good, but they are not guaranteed anything just because they are defending World Series champions either. Their bullpen is flaky and their lineup has holes in it. The Dodgers are young but they also are tempered by last season’s defeat to this same Philly squad.

The following breakdown is not scientific, but it is my basic snapshot at why I am picking the Dodgers in six games (out of a best of seven) to defeat the Phils. I see three reasons why LA will beat the defending champs: team speed, hot hitting, and power pitchers.

SPEED KILLS
Philly has Rollins and Utley, who are quick and intelligent baserunners and infielders. Victorino has better than average speed, as does Werth, but no one will mistake the Philly outfield for a herd of gazelles. LA has Furcal in the infield, and with his quickness and rifle arm, and with Kemp and Ethier in the outfield, the Dodgers equal and exceed the Phils for footspeed in their starting lineup. WhenLos Angeles needs a pinch hitter or runner, they can put in Juan Pierre, who is quicker than anyone on either team by three steps, with the possible exception of Kemp, who could have been a running back if he had not opted for baseball.

This Dodger team will run away and hide on a team if given the chance. Of course, you cannot steal first base, so if Philly pitching keeps these Bums off base, then there is no fear of the Blue fleet, of course.

My bet is that LA will exploit their speed, on defense by getting to ground balls and line drives, and on the bases when they get on them. Furcal at leadoff is essential to this process, as he was in the NLDS versus the Cards. If the Dodger shortstop gets on base twice in a game, the Dodgers play almost .750 ball. If he goes 0-for-whatever, they play well under .500. The same goes for Philly with Rollins. Look for the leadoff men to indicate if speed will kill in this series.

POWER, POWER, POWER…
Manny can go deep, but will he?

What would you think if I said I don’t care if does or not? Because if he doesn’t … LA can still score.

Last year, it was a question of “No Manny, No Win” but with a lineup that puts Kemp, Ethier, and Blake up against the Philly pitchers, and the recently hot bats of Furcal and Belliard to boot, this Dodger team can score with what they have. IF Manny is hot . . . it will then be a question of how many runs this team wins by. Everyone knows that. Charlie Manuel sure as hell knows. They will pitch around Manny if he is, indeed, back on his game. But nobody gets well pitching to Blake or Kemp to get past Ramirez. This year proved that LA’s power is in their youth and those same kids got them 95 regular season wins.

Then, just when it was Kidville, along came veterans like Loretta and Thome this season to bring experience into that youth culture. Thome is not his old self, and Loretta is no crusher, but they know how to hit and will be counted on to do so at the drop of a hat. LA’s bench is more powerful than Philly’s, not in its slugging, but in its tested strength over the year – to deliver an rbi, to move a runner over, or to do the smart thing. Benches and bullpens are often what Torre’s champions won with back in New York, and if he wins it again with LA, it will be with the power of these two oft-overlooked aspects of his team.

Don’t get me wrong – Ibanez, Howard, and Werth have pop. Stairs off the bench? He took Broxton deeper than Linda Lovelace last October and if a Dodger pitcher grooves any fastballs high middle to those guys again, the ball will go very, very far indeed.

Still, my bet is that LA’s power will be there in the NLDS. This team has an awareness that their lineup can comeback from ANY deficit. That is invaluable to a young team like the Dodgers have here. And … last year’s loss in five to Philly is incentive enough to keep the Bums focused, too. Winning it again is mathematically difficult for any team, so that benefits LA as well.

But math is not the subject in baseball this time of year … the subject is pitching. And that brings me to …

BULLPENS
I think everybody knows that if LA leads after six innings, LA will win that game. Everyone with an attached brainstem is aware of this cold hard fact. If the speed and power of LA comes together as it should, then this series will go to LA. Broxton alone is five times the pitcher any Philly bullpen man is – when you add Sherrill, Belisario, Kuo, and Billingsley to back up a failing or tired starter, LA is a powerhouse. The Philly hitters are smart and quick and able – they will try their best to get to Dodger starters early. They will hope to shakeup young Kershaw, who is only 21 years old. They will put Wolf’s junkball 80something pitches into play if they can, and they will test Padilla’s temper and Kuroda’s psychosis (post-line drive to the noggin related, that is) because one thing Philadelphia DOES NOT WANT is to be trailing the Dodgers with three innings to play.

As good as Carpenter and Wainwright are, Hamels and Lee are equally daunting to any lineup. Philly pitchers got them past some good teams to get this far, and they want more champagne in late Fall to go with last year’s party.

This blogger counts on Blue to trump Red, however. LA is faster where speed is needed, more powerful (and hot at the moment) 1-8 in the lineup and off the bench, and far and away the better team off the mound.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Phils

- Get to LA pitchers early & neutralize the Dodger bullpen … LA cannot dominate with their 100 mph bully if their starters give up the lead early

- Howard & Ibanez driving in runs … if they have men on, these two will get their fastballs . . . and they find gaps when they connect

- Stealing on Martin … he’s a good catcher, but he’s no Jim Sundberg … and with Rollins, Utley, Werth, and Victorino stealing 99 bases this season, Russell cannot let the rabbits loose, and LA pitchers have to hold them close

Dodgers

- The Leadoff Man: if LA gets Furcal on to start the game, they score. If they lead off any inning and earn a base, they tend to score. And if LA scores early, they win 82% of their games this past season.

- Andre Ethier’s bat … A-Eth hit .194 in 165 at bats versus lefties this season, which makes him a liability with Philly’s many southpaws. But if Andre is able to hit Hamels, Happ, and Lee effectively in this series, that may be the pivot point for LA’s offensive success. If Ethier goes off, this whole Dodger lineup will explode around him.

- Working the Count: if Dodger hitters are patient with those lefty starters and their sweeping sliders, they may draw more walks. If they do, Ruiz will be taxed to throw out runners, and the pitcher will have to come with more fastballs. And that will be a huge success for the Dodgers if they can do that . . . so patience is crucial.

PREDICTION: Los Angeles in six games over Philadelphia

I picked the Cardinals as the winners of the last series … with my wallet. But I never ACTUALLY bet on the series, so I guess my money is safe in that sense. My heart picked the Dodgers in five, so they swept St. Louis, just to make a monkey out of me. So my pick here may have little veracity.

But I do believe that this will be a great series, and I expect the pitching to be superb on both sides. There may be one careless blowout game either way, but I would not be shocked if every game wound up 2-1, 3-2, or even went to extra innings scoreless at one point.

I greatly respect this Philly team, but honestly, I believed LA-StL was the series for the NL Pennant. And I still hold to that prediction.

The Dodgers are the better baseball team overall and they should win this series. But they still have to prove that on the field in a best of seven series.

I hope it’s a good one . . .

Go Dodgers!

Finski

ALCS & NLCS Prognostications

Skynet blogger and real person Finksi didn't do so well predicting the outcome of the Dodgers and Cardinals NLDS series, so this time around we've dispatched two fictional characters to preview the ALCS and NLCS. What the hell - its worth a shot. Without further ado, Skynet is proud to present the profound prognostications effeminate vampire Edward Cullen and the Prophet Muhammad.



ALCS
California Angels (97-65) at New York Yankee$ (103-59)

Edward: As you know from your dogged devotion to the insane ramblings of middle aged shrew Stephanie Meyer, we Cullens love baseball. In fact, the only thing we love more is being sexlicious. That said, I can't show any love for this series. Where are my beloved Seattle Mariners? Oh yes, they're quite dreadful. Little known fact: Ichiro sparkles in the sunlight as well, that's why he stays with that rubbish team. I don't know who to pick. I lied earlier. I don't really follow baseball. Who can find the time? My hair isn't this disheveled naturally you know. It takes hours. Every day. I guess I'll take the Angels in 6.

Muhammad: This match-up makes me SO ANGRY! GRRRR! Think about it, I get to choose between servants of the Christian god or Yankee imperialists who are undoubtedly under the control of the Zionists. Why couldn't the Twins have made it? Now there's a proper Muslim team. Ron Gardenhire won't let his wife drive. I don't care who wins this series. Go with whatever the queer vampire says.

NLCS
Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) at Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67)

Muhammad: I don't know what a Phillie or a Dodger is. Isn't a Phillie some sort of horse? Arabian horses are the shit. They aren't horses? Fuck. Apparently this is a replay of last year's NLCS. The Phillies won that one. Lightning doesn't strike twice, plus Los Angeles has their secret weapon this year: Vicente Padilla. Dodgers in 5.

Edward: Hmmm? My turn? Sorry, I was brooding. People in Philadelphia aren't very sexy. No one sparkles there. Oh sure, a few glisten, but that's because they are covered in grease from their dreadful food. These "cheese steak" things are simply abominable. That rot goes straight to my thighs. The Native American kids/werewolves seem to be high on the Phillies, so naturally I have to swing the other way. Dodgers in 7.

* * * * * * * * * *

So there it is, Edward Cullen and the Prophet Muhammad predict an Angels/Dodgers world series. Wouldn't that just cause a wave of aneurysms at ESPN! I've been rooting for a "Freeway Series" pretty much since I began following the game and this is the closest we've ever been, so who am I to disagree? Go Dodgers!

NLDS Baseball: Red Hate, Blue Fate

This is a series to watch if you want to see the NL Champion play now in case you miss the Fall Classic in a few weeks . . .

I have one clear-cut prediction to make here, and that is whichever team wins this series, I will bet every dollar in my meager bank account ... that team will play in the World Series. I thought I'd piss off a few people right away with that less-than-bold prognostication (for Rox fans - that word means 'an advance prediction/indication of events to come' ... just wanted to help you out). The Rox cannot beat the Dodgers this year and LA matches up very well versus a weakened bullpen in Philly, while the Cards have far & away the NL's best rotation & best overall player in the game in Pujols.

But my points below are less than fluffy across the board. I do not feel good about playing a Cards team that manhandled my Blue the last five years. Yes, the Cards have bumbled around the last two weeks as well, and they look more beatable than they have all year right now. But these two teams ARE the NL's best, hands down. It just a matter of who does what and when under pressure.

So here are my predictions of what I believe will be a foretaste of World Series excellence for at least one of these teams, the things which MUST or CAN'T HAPPEN to either team ...

Must Happen - StL:

- Pujols and Holliday On Fire: These two guys are powerhouses and if they heat up, forget beating the Cardinals. You cannot pitch around God and Jesus at the same time, and these two, if hot, officially comprise 2/3 of the Holy Trinity of the modern five-tool player. I'd be content to be a StL fan if these two crusha-lot in October

- Top & Bottom Lineup OBP: LaRussa juggles this lineup quite a bit (see below), but when Schumaker leads off and Molina bats 8th, this lineup is dangerous because both guys had above average on-base-percentages (.363 & .366 respectively). It's bad enough with Pujols and Holliday making your life miserable, but these two are not shabby on their own. I've seen both players be the fly in the Dodger ointment enough already, so if I see them getting on base, StL pitching will be LA's least problem. Molina is especially brutal at Dodger Stadium, where he's 3-for-7 with two 2B this season alone.

- Pitching Deep: If StL starters are still pitching in the 7th, StL wins. The end. Their bullpen isn't as good as LA's, but it's good enough to manage two innings with a lead, which it usually has with the lineup that bats 1-8 in this town. Cards fans love Carpy and Wainwright because they are strong for two turns through a lineup. Dodger fans tremble to think they'll see either man walking to the mound before or during a 7th inning stretch. Key stat: In September, Carpenter and Wainwright are a tag-team monstrosity: 73 strikeouts, average ERA of about 2.65, and 67 hits allowed in 75 innings, only two for home runs . . . Judas priest . . .

Must Happen - LA:

- Furcal Rockin' the Leadoff: As goes the leadoff man, so goes this team - Furcal has to earn bases or this series will be one short misery for LA. I love my Dodgers and always will, but this Latino headcase has one job - get on base, run like a deer, and make StL pitchers worry about him instead of whoever is at the plate. To his credit, Rafael has been swinging and running better the last two weeks, but he needs to try his bunt more often and pester the pitcher when he does get on. Because of back pain, he ran less this season than ever before, so Dodger fans pray for a Furcal in motion ... for Newtonian purposes if nothing else.

- Manny Being Something Like Last Year: The bane of all the whining maggot opponents who (regardless of their bull**it denials of same) wish Manny played on their team, Mr. Ramirez has to be his October self for LA to win. I would have listed this first except that Manny hit a number of solo jacks and doubles this year when Furcal was not ahead of him, which is why the Dodger SS must do his thing for Manny to do his. Alone, Manny is a handful for pitchers when his game is on, but with help and a hot ManRam (does that read as pornographically as it felt typing it?), Los Angeles is a juggernaut that rivals Pujols & Pals for incendiary offensive potential.

- First Strike Starters: Simply put, Dodger pitching is best when they are around the plate; the defense is solid and can field the ball, and Dodger Stadium & Busch are tough to go deep in, so putting the ball in play is a good thing. Whenever Dodger starters, especially Wolf and Kershaw, get the ball over early, opposing hitters swing sooner than they want to and LA benefits. Dodger fans smile at 0-1 counts because it bodes well for victory, especially so with the NL's best bullpen behind those starters.

Can't Happen - StL:

- Prince Albert in a Can: If you quiet Pujols, you just defeated Poseidon at sea. Any damn fool knows that if you keep Albert below a hit a game or off the bases entirely, you magnify your chances to win. StL fans love Albert, and he's lovable win or lose, as he's as much a gentleman as the game has right now. But Missouri will weep the river over its banks if Albert goes 0-for-October. He's simply the best there is, and he has to show up. If he doesn't, I hope Cards fans don't mind watching the Rams lose because that'll be all they have to do for awhile...

- Pitching a Fit: Of late, Carpenter and Wainwright have been amazing, but the same cannot be said for Lohse, Franklin, Smoltz or Pineiro. Maybe it's because they ran away with the division and they lost their edge, or maybe it's a psych job on the Dodgers. But if the season has worn them down and they can't get ahead early and make hitters go for their breaking balls disguised as heaters, Cards fans will twitch all the way to Christmas. True, Carpy and Wain appear formidably unbeatable, but if LA beats one of those studs, they face a staff that is less than impressive and even at Busch, can be gotten to.

- Micro-Tony, the Fat Vegetarian: I'm no fan of the Cardinal skipper. He worries the lineup with his fiddling about and his back & forth moves in the lineup. Torre is bad but LaRussa is worse. His foolishness in this manner mangled the Cards a few years ago in the World Series when they got beat by the BoSox. He either leaves a pitcher in too long, pulls him too early, or switches a hitter out a slot and kills someone else's rhythm. LaRussa is tabbed a genius but he reminds me of Lumberg in "Office Space" . . . and he doesn't eat meat, can't handle his booze, and he's a bit fat for an Italian . . . oh wait, Lasorda is too . . . so that last part may be dismissed . . .

Can't Happen - LA:

- No Show Offense: Dear Dodgers, April was a lovely month for baseball, so please try to hit that way. Your second half slumber on many a summer's night was surviveable because you had a lead bigger than Glenn Beck's ego and you had two suckass teams chasing you that couldn't catch the clap in a French cathouse. I'd make this blurb more specific, like who should hit what or why this position needs these stats, but LA won games on different bats all year, albeit most dramatically via Andre's walkoffs and Manny's Bobblehead BigFly. But Judas . . . this is the playoffs; score like before or play golf in mid-October. The End. This isn't poetry, it's baseball.

- In God We Trust, But Not Billingsley & McDonald: Chad is talented, but if Torre opts to start the kid, it's a white flag (thank you, Gov X), and if you see LB Poly's McD leaving the bully and heading to a mound, pray for lightning. Both of these lads mean well and have some game, but for whatever mental or developmental reasons, they are not ready for prime time. Mop up, OK, but both need splinters in their butts before entering a game of any tightness whatsoever.

- Playing the Fop: If a game gets tight, or a Cardinal needs to get plunked, or a catcher needs to be knocked over, LA cannot pretend to be a gentleman. This is hardball and any attempt to be nicey-nice will lose the Dodgers a game and the series, just like that same lack of killer instinct lost the series to Philly last year. Play like a man or go home now, Blue.

PREDICTION: from the heart, LA in 5, from the wallet, StL in 4.

If LA loses, Clayton's start at home in Game 2 will be their sole victory, and if LA wins it , they'll split at home and win Game 3 in StL, forcing a dramatic Game Five in LA.

So have some huevos and call the series now - any jackass who thinks he can predict stuff two days after it wraps shall receive my utter disdain and vitriolic redress.

And I wear one piece of gear: Jackie Robinson's #42 Dodger jersey. If you are the type who buys the eventual winner's gear after it's all over - please go get a vasectomy or tubal ligation. Weaklings and pukes that do that deserve not the pleasures of the mating process, nor the infected offspring that generate from their unnatural union.

"Look upon the hideous site! Bandwagoners in brand-new Angel jerseys are making the beast with two backs! BURN THE APOSTATES!!!" ~ comment heard outside Anaslime Stadium in November of 2002 . . .

Addendum: Biggest Joy/Flop for StL/LA in series...

StL Joy: Mark DeRosa's play will be solid, on the field & basepaths, making Cub Nation slice their collective wrists and wish they'd never been born in the first place...

StL Flop: John Smoltz's journeyman rep will be tarnished when the BoSox version of his rag-arm shows up and gets shredded by Dodger bats...

LA Joy: Ethier's bat will re-awaken & make Billy Beane commit seppuku, and Kemp will shine in CF, with arm & glove alike...

LA Flop: Loney & Hudson will hit weakly, and will score less than Bill Clinton at a lesbian social ...

Yours in October Love,

Finski, Dodger Fan, always and forever . . .