NLDS Baseball: Red Hate, Blue Fate

This is a series to watch if you want to see the NL Champion play now in case you miss the Fall Classic in a few weeks . . .

I have one clear-cut prediction to make here, and that is whichever team wins this series, I will bet every dollar in my meager bank account ... that team will play in the World Series. I thought I'd piss off a few people right away with that less-than-bold prognostication (for Rox fans - that word means 'an advance prediction/indication of events to come' ... just wanted to help you out). The Rox cannot beat the Dodgers this year and LA matches up very well versus a weakened bullpen in Philly, while the Cards have far & away the NL's best rotation & best overall player in the game in Pujols.

But my points below are less than fluffy across the board. I do not feel good about playing a Cards team that manhandled my Blue the last five years. Yes, the Cards have bumbled around the last two weeks as well, and they look more beatable than they have all year right now. But these two teams ARE the NL's best, hands down. It just a matter of who does what and when under pressure.

So here are my predictions of what I believe will be a foretaste of World Series excellence for at least one of these teams, the things which MUST or CAN'T HAPPEN to either team ...

Must Happen - StL:

- Pujols and Holliday On Fire: These two guys are powerhouses and if they heat up, forget beating the Cardinals. You cannot pitch around God and Jesus at the same time, and these two, if hot, officially comprise 2/3 of the Holy Trinity of the modern five-tool player. I'd be content to be a StL fan if these two crusha-lot in October

- Top & Bottom Lineup OBP: LaRussa juggles this lineup quite a bit (see below), but when Schumaker leads off and Molina bats 8th, this lineup is dangerous because both guys had above average on-base-percentages (.363 & .366 respectively). It's bad enough with Pujols and Holliday making your life miserable, but these two are not shabby on their own. I've seen both players be the fly in the Dodger ointment enough already, so if I see them getting on base, StL pitching will be LA's least problem. Molina is especially brutal at Dodger Stadium, where he's 3-for-7 with two 2B this season alone.

- Pitching Deep: If StL starters are still pitching in the 7th, StL wins. The end. Their bullpen isn't as good as LA's, but it's good enough to manage two innings with a lead, which it usually has with the lineup that bats 1-8 in this town. Cards fans love Carpy and Wainwright because they are strong for two turns through a lineup. Dodger fans tremble to think they'll see either man walking to the mound before or during a 7th inning stretch. Key stat: In September, Carpenter and Wainwright are a tag-team monstrosity: 73 strikeouts, average ERA of about 2.65, and 67 hits allowed in 75 innings, only two for home runs . . . Judas priest . . .

Must Happen - LA:

- Furcal Rockin' the Leadoff: As goes the leadoff man, so goes this team - Furcal has to earn bases or this series will be one short misery for LA. I love my Dodgers and always will, but this Latino headcase has one job - get on base, run like a deer, and make StL pitchers worry about him instead of whoever is at the plate. To his credit, Rafael has been swinging and running better the last two weeks, but he needs to try his bunt more often and pester the pitcher when he does get on. Because of back pain, he ran less this season than ever before, so Dodger fans pray for a Furcal in motion ... for Newtonian purposes if nothing else.

- Manny Being Something Like Last Year: The bane of all the whining maggot opponents who (regardless of their bull**it denials of same) wish Manny played on their team, Mr. Ramirez has to be his October self for LA to win. I would have listed this first except that Manny hit a number of solo jacks and doubles this year when Furcal was not ahead of him, which is why the Dodger SS must do his thing for Manny to do his. Alone, Manny is a handful for pitchers when his game is on, but with help and a hot ManRam (does that read as pornographically as it felt typing it?), Los Angeles is a juggernaut that rivals Pujols & Pals for incendiary offensive potential.

- First Strike Starters: Simply put, Dodger pitching is best when they are around the plate; the defense is solid and can field the ball, and Dodger Stadium & Busch are tough to go deep in, so putting the ball in play is a good thing. Whenever Dodger starters, especially Wolf and Kershaw, get the ball over early, opposing hitters swing sooner than they want to and LA benefits. Dodger fans smile at 0-1 counts because it bodes well for victory, especially so with the NL's best bullpen behind those starters.

Can't Happen - StL:

- Prince Albert in a Can: If you quiet Pujols, you just defeated Poseidon at sea. Any damn fool knows that if you keep Albert below a hit a game or off the bases entirely, you magnify your chances to win. StL fans love Albert, and he's lovable win or lose, as he's as much a gentleman as the game has right now. But Missouri will weep the river over its banks if Albert goes 0-for-October. He's simply the best there is, and he has to show up. If he doesn't, I hope Cards fans don't mind watching the Rams lose because that'll be all they have to do for awhile...

- Pitching a Fit: Of late, Carpenter and Wainwright have been amazing, but the same cannot be said for Lohse, Franklin, Smoltz or Pineiro. Maybe it's because they ran away with the division and they lost their edge, or maybe it's a psych job on the Dodgers. But if the season has worn them down and they can't get ahead early and make hitters go for their breaking balls disguised as heaters, Cards fans will twitch all the way to Christmas. True, Carpy and Wain appear formidably unbeatable, but if LA beats one of those studs, they face a staff that is less than impressive and even at Busch, can be gotten to.

- Micro-Tony, the Fat Vegetarian: I'm no fan of the Cardinal skipper. He worries the lineup with his fiddling about and his back & forth moves in the lineup. Torre is bad but LaRussa is worse. His foolishness in this manner mangled the Cards a few years ago in the World Series when they got beat by the BoSox. He either leaves a pitcher in too long, pulls him too early, or switches a hitter out a slot and kills someone else's rhythm. LaRussa is tabbed a genius but he reminds me of Lumberg in "Office Space" . . . and he doesn't eat meat, can't handle his booze, and he's a bit fat for an Italian . . . oh wait, Lasorda is too . . . so that last part may be dismissed . . .

Can't Happen - LA:

- No Show Offense: Dear Dodgers, April was a lovely month for baseball, so please try to hit that way. Your second half slumber on many a summer's night was surviveable because you had a lead bigger than Glenn Beck's ego and you had two suckass teams chasing you that couldn't catch the clap in a French cathouse. I'd make this blurb more specific, like who should hit what or why this position needs these stats, but LA won games on different bats all year, albeit most dramatically via Andre's walkoffs and Manny's Bobblehead BigFly. But Judas . . . this is the playoffs; score like before or play golf in mid-October. The End. This isn't poetry, it's baseball.

- In God We Trust, But Not Billingsley & McDonald: Chad is talented, but if Torre opts to start the kid, it's a white flag (thank you, Gov X), and if you see LB Poly's McD leaving the bully and heading to a mound, pray for lightning. Both of these lads mean well and have some game, but for whatever mental or developmental reasons, they are not ready for prime time. Mop up, OK, but both need splinters in their butts before entering a game of any tightness whatsoever.

- Playing the Fop: If a game gets tight, or a Cardinal needs to get plunked, or a catcher needs to be knocked over, LA cannot pretend to be a gentleman. This is hardball and any attempt to be nicey-nice will lose the Dodgers a game and the series, just like that same lack of killer instinct lost the series to Philly last year. Play like a man or go home now, Blue.

PREDICTION: from the heart, LA in 5, from the wallet, StL in 4.

If LA loses, Clayton's start at home in Game 2 will be their sole victory, and if LA wins it , they'll split at home and win Game 3 in StL, forcing a dramatic Game Five in LA.

So have some huevos and call the series now - any jackass who thinks he can predict stuff two days after it wraps shall receive my utter disdain and vitriolic redress.

And I wear one piece of gear: Jackie Robinson's #42 Dodger jersey. If you are the type who buys the eventual winner's gear after it's all over - please go get a vasectomy or tubal ligation. Weaklings and pukes that do that deserve not the pleasures of the mating process, nor the infected offspring that generate from their unnatural union.

"Look upon the hideous site! Bandwagoners in brand-new Angel jerseys are making the beast with two backs! BURN THE APOSTATES!!!" ~ comment heard outside Anaslime Stadium in November of 2002 . . .

Addendum: Biggest Joy/Flop for StL/LA in series...

StL Joy: Mark DeRosa's play will be solid, on the field & basepaths, making Cub Nation slice their collective wrists and wish they'd never been born in the first place...

StL Flop: John Smoltz's journeyman rep will be tarnished when the BoSox version of his rag-arm shows up and gets shredded by Dodger bats...

LA Joy: Ethier's bat will re-awaken & make Billy Beane commit seppuku, and Kemp will shine in CF, with arm & glove alike...

LA Flop: Loney & Hudson will hit weakly, and will score less than Bill Clinton at a lesbian social ...

Yours in October Love,

Finski, Dodger Fan, always and forever . . .