The NLCS: Dodgers vs. Phillies

So, here we are …

Baseball is often called the national pastime, but in recent decades, it is safe to assert that it has lost that honored designation to some extent. The major league minimum salary exceeds the average American’s annual income by almost twelve times over, an increase of 800% over what players earned from the 1940s to the 1960s. Those years were some of the greatest that baseball ever had, when its heroes became icons in the national church of sport. The October greatness that baseball brought to the culture gave the World Series the honored title of the “Fall Classic” – somehow, the tainting of the game by PEDs, greedy free agents, stratospheric ticket prices, and bellicose fans aplenty at the ballparks makes one wonder if this is the same game my father watched when America fought the commies in Korea while Ted Williams flew a navy fighter jet in Pyongyang.

Whatever…

I love this game so damned much that even with its many black eyes, I still awaken each day, and along with my coffee and love of fried bacon, I pull up the standings between April and September so I can see where my Dodgers stand. I usually know the previous night’s score and how many games back they are, but I look anyway. And as the weather cools a bit, yes, even in lizard-hot SoCal, I pray LA will put a team into the postseason.

And in recent years, while the Angels of OC have been fielding competitive teams for the last decade, it has been good to see my Dodgers back in the playoff hunt again after a rough decade. They have been there before – 2004 versus the Cards (lost in four games); 2006 versus the Mets (swept in three); 2008 versus the Cubs and Phillies (swept Chicago, but lost in four games to Philly) – but the Dodgers have not won a World Series since I was a youthful and utterly annoying 23 year-old in 1988. At 44, I can taste the familiar feeling of a potential title team again, and I see it in the swagger these blue-clad lads display on the field. But I am also a wiser, wider 44 year-old, too. I know you do not always get what you want in this game called baseball. Sometimes, you get close and then see that proximity become a chasm all too quickly, leaving you with a long, cold winter to ponder the many questions that made your team fall short.

And still, I love baseball, and I love the Los Angeles Dodgers all the more.

PLAYOFFS!

Tonight at Dodger Stadium, the Philadelphia Phillies matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies are favored by the oddsmakers, and that is fine for Dodger fans, trust me. The Phils are very good, but they are not guaranteed anything just because they are defending World Series champions either. Their bullpen is flaky and their lineup has holes in it. The Dodgers are young but they also are tempered by last season’s defeat to this same Philly squad.

The following breakdown is not scientific, but it is my basic snapshot at why I am picking the Dodgers in six games (out of a best of seven) to defeat the Phils. I see three reasons why LA will beat the defending champs: team speed, hot hitting, and power pitchers.

SPEED KILLS
Philly has Rollins and Utley, who are quick and intelligent baserunners and infielders. Victorino has better than average speed, as does Werth, but no one will mistake the Philly outfield for a herd of gazelles. LA has Furcal in the infield, and with his quickness and rifle arm, and with Kemp and Ethier in the outfield, the Dodgers equal and exceed the Phils for footspeed in their starting lineup. WhenLos Angeles needs a pinch hitter or runner, they can put in Juan Pierre, who is quicker than anyone on either team by three steps, with the possible exception of Kemp, who could have been a running back if he had not opted for baseball.

This Dodger team will run away and hide on a team if given the chance. Of course, you cannot steal first base, so if Philly pitching keeps these Bums off base, then there is no fear of the Blue fleet, of course.

My bet is that LA will exploit their speed, on defense by getting to ground balls and line drives, and on the bases when they get on them. Furcal at leadoff is essential to this process, as he was in the NLDS versus the Cards. If the Dodger shortstop gets on base twice in a game, the Dodgers play almost .750 ball. If he goes 0-for-whatever, they play well under .500. The same goes for Philly with Rollins. Look for the leadoff men to indicate if speed will kill in this series.

POWER, POWER, POWER…
Manny can go deep, but will he?

What would you think if I said I don’t care if does or not? Because if he doesn’t … LA can still score.

Last year, it was a question of “No Manny, No Win” but with a lineup that puts Kemp, Ethier, and Blake up against the Philly pitchers, and the recently hot bats of Furcal and Belliard to boot, this Dodger team can score with what they have. IF Manny is hot . . . it will then be a question of how many runs this team wins by. Everyone knows that. Charlie Manuel sure as hell knows. They will pitch around Manny if he is, indeed, back on his game. But nobody gets well pitching to Blake or Kemp to get past Ramirez. This year proved that LA’s power is in their youth and those same kids got them 95 regular season wins.

Then, just when it was Kidville, along came veterans like Loretta and Thome this season to bring experience into that youth culture. Thome is not his old self, and Loretta is no crusher, but they know how to hit and will be counted on to do so at the drop of a hat. LA’s bench is more powerful than Philly’s, not in its slugging, but in its tested strength over the year – to deliver an rbi, to move a runner over, or to do the smart thing. Benches and bullpens are often what Torre’s champions won with back in New York, and if he wins it again with LA, it will be with the power of these two oft-overlooked aspects of his team.

Don’t get me wrong – Ibanez, Howard, and Werth have pop. Stairs off the bench? He took Broxton deeper than Linda Lovelace last October and if a Dodger pitcher grooves any fastballs high middle to those guys again, the ball will go very, very far indeed.

Still, my bet is that LA’s power will be there in the NLDS. This team has an awareness that their lineup can comeback from ANY deficit. That is invaluable to a young team like the Dodgers have here. And … last year’s loss in five to Philly is incentive enough to keep the Bums focused, too. Winning it again is mathematically difficult for any team, so that benefits LA as well.

But math is not the subject in baseball this time of year … the subject is pitching. And that brings me to …

BULLPENS
I think everybody knows that if LA leads after six innings, LA will win that game. Everyone with an attached brainstem is aware of this cold hard fact. If the speed and power of LA comes together as it should, then this series will go to LA. Broxton alone is five times the pitcher any Philly bullpen man is – when you add Sherrill, Belisario, Kuo, and Billingsley to back up a failing or tired starter, LA is a powerhouse. The Philly hitters are smart and quick and able – they will try their best to get to Dodger starters early. They will hope to shakeup young Kershaw, who is only 21 years old. They will put Wolf’s junkball 80something pitches into play if they can, and they will test Padilla’s temper and Kuroda’s psychosis (post-line drive to the noggin related, that is) because one thing Philadelphia DOES NOT WANT is to be trailing the Dodgers with three innings to play.

As good as Carpenter and Wainwright are, Hamels and Lee are equally daunting to any lineup. Philly pitchers got them past some good teams to get this far, and they want more champagne in late Fall to go with last year’s party.

This blogger counts on Blue to trump Red, however. LA is faster where speed is needed, more powerful (and hot at the moment) 1-8 in the lineup and off the bench, and far and away the better team off the mound.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Phils

- Get to LA pitchers early & neutralize the Dodger bullpen … LA cannot dominate with their 100 mph bully if their starters give up the lead early

- Howard & Ibanez driving in runs … if they have men on, these two will get their fastballs . . . and they find gaps when they connect

- Stealing on Martin … he’s a good catcher, but he’s no Jim Sundberg … and with Rollins, Utley, Werth, and Victorino stealing 99 bases this season, Russell cannot let the rabbits loose, and LA pitchers have to hold them close

Dodgers

- The Leadoff Man: if LA gets Furcal on to start the game, they score. If they lead off any inning and earn a base, they tend to score. And if LA scores early, they win 82% of their games this past season.

- Andre Ethier’s bat … A-Eth hit .194 in 165 at bats versus lefties this season, which makes him a liability with Philly’s many southpaws. But if Andre is able to hit Hamels, Happ, and Lee effectively in this series, that may be the pivot point for LA’s offensive success. If Ethier goes off, this whole Dodger lineup will explode around him.

- Working the Count: if Dodger hitters are patient with those lefty starters and their sweeping sliders, they may draw more walks. If they do, Ruiz will be taxed to throw out runners, and the pitcher will have to come with more fastballs. And that will be a huge success for the Dodgers if they can do that . . . so patience is crucial.

PREDICTION: Los Angeles in six games over Philadelphia

I picked the Cardinals as the winners of the last series … with my wallet. But I never ACTUALLY bet on the series, so I guess my money is safe in that sense. My heart picked the Dodgers in five, so they swept St. Louis, just to make a monkey out of me. So my pick here may have little veracity.

But I do believe that this will be a great series, and I expect the pitching to be superb on both sides. There may be one careless blowout game either way, but I would not be shocked if every game wound up 2-1, 3-2, or even went to extra innings scoreless at one point.

I greatly respect this Philly team, but honestly, I believed LA-StL was the series for the NL Pennant. And I still hold to that prediction.

The Dodgers are the better baseball team overall and they should win this series. But they still have to prove that on the field in a best of seven series.

I hope it’s a good one . . .

Go Dodgers!

Finski