Friday, November 14, 2008

Howard Dean was right

When Howard Dean was elected chairman of the DNC after his largely media-driven primary defeat in 2004, he shocked the political world with novel concept:

The Democrats should compete in all 50 states.

Ridiculous! Nonsense! If the 2004 election taught us anything its that Karl Rove was a mastermind that had succeeded in relegating the Democrats to permanent minority status. Many, including far too many Democrats, took this as gospel and denounced Dean as a pie in the sky dreamer. The Democrats, it seemed, would never win another Presidential election without Florida and couldn't break through the Republican congressional majorities. They were, as the insane Zell Miller said, "a national party no more."

Then something magical happened. The strategy started paying off. In 2005, Dean's DNC raised an off-year record $51 million and prepared to spend it in 2006. Now, to be fair, the Bush administration's gross mismanagement of everything from the war in Iraq to evacuating New Orleans certainly helped, but the 2006 Democrats were competitive in states they would not have considered with another chairman.

As you know, the Democrats swept into power in both houses of congress that year. It was as President Bush so eloquently put it, "a thumpin." The long derided "San Francisco liberal" Nancy Pelosi was now the first female speaker of the house in US history and with the Democrats held a narrow majority in the Senate thanks to pick ups in states like Montana and Virginia. Yes, the 50-state strategy strikes again. After 2006, the 2008 congressional election results were never really in dispute. Even Republicans, who were defending more seats, conceded it wouldn't go well. The only question was how close to the filibuster proof 60 Senate seats the Democrats would come. The election was even more favorable to Democrats than we had hoped, and gains in Virginia (again), Oregon, New Mexico, and Colorado among others have the Democrats sitting at 57. Three states still remain to be decided. It looks more and more like Alaska will go to a Democrat and Minnesota candidate Al Frankken trails by only 206 votes in a race headed to a recount. In the unlikely event they could pick up Georgia, a 60 seat Senate majority is still possible.

The big story in 2008 was, naturally, the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. The 50-state strategy was a cornerstone of Obama's campaign even in the primaries. He focused on gaining delegates in all corners of the country, competing in states like Alaska and North Dakota that Hillary Clinton never bothered to visit. Once nominated, the large sums of money Obama raised allowed him to again compete in every corner of the nation. Before all was said and done, Obama had run adds in states as red as Montana (Bush won by 20 pts in 2004) and North Dakota (Bush won by 27 pts in 2004). While ultimately Obama did not win these states, he kept both close, losing Montana by only 3% and North Dakota by 8%. He did successfully pick off other extremely red states like Indiana (Bush in 2004 won by 21%) and North Carolina where Bush won by 12%. In all, Obama flipped 9 states from red to blue on his way to 365 electoral votes. He most recently won 1 EV from Nebraska, who splits its electoral vote by congressional district.

So Howard Dean is looking pretty good right now. His "crazy" 50-state strategy has resulted in huge Democratic congressional majorities and a President with a governing mandate. Congrats Governor.

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